[SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke] 20250113

Published: Jan 13, 2025 16:53

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[SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke production at coking plants remains stable, with moderate shipments. However, the slow decline in raw material prices has narrowed coking plant profits. On the demand side, the impact of steel mills' winter stockpiling policies remains strong, while transactions continue to weaken, and the negative feedback trend persists. Steel mills are preparing to seek profits upstream. In summary, market expectations are pessimistic, and the seventh round of coke price cuts this week is expected to see further negotiations.

SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke

Coking Coal Market:

The price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen is 1,450 yuan/mt. The price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Tangshan is 1,500 yuan/mt.

In terms of raw material fundamentals, coal mines have scheduled maintenance and holidays, with some mines expected to gradually suspend operations this week, leading to a contraction in coal supply. Additionally, with steel billet prices continuing to decline, downstream sectors are increasingly inclined to bargain down raw material prices. In the short term, coking coal lacks upward momentum, and prices of certain coal types may continue to decrease.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,900 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of Quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,760 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,540 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of Quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,458 yuan/mt.

Supply side, coke production remains stable, and sales are moderate. However, the decline in raw material prices is slow, squeezing coke producers' profits. Demand side, the impact of steel mills' winter stockpiling policies persists, with transactions continuing to weaken. The negative feedback trend remains, and steel mills are preparing to seek profits upstream. In summary, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the seventh round of coke price cuts this week may see further negotiation. 【SMM Steel】

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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